How come the federal government won’t say how many people its disability benefit will lift out of poverty?

Instead, the minister for persons with disabilities insisted the benefit will “close the gap” and said the current funding for the benefit is just a first step intended to be built upon, much like the Canada Child Benefit and the Guaranteed Income Supplement for seniors the benefit is modelled after.

“When we look at some of the hardest hardships that people with disabilities live with across the country, it’s fair to say that every dollar counts, and, you know, this is a benefit that was meant to be expanded,” she said. “But we need to be a responsible government that does it in a way that ensures that there are no provinces or territorial, unintended consequences or clawbacks.”

The federal budget states incoming regulations must fit within the fiscal framework of $6.1 billion — the money allocated for the benefit over the next six years. The $200 per month income-tested benefit will eventually cover 600,000 working-age people with disabilities, far fewer than the more than one million living in poverty.

Policy experts who spoke to the Star said the government would be highlighting the number of people the benefit would lift out of poverty if it was a significant number, in line with the government’s promise that it would reduce poverty.

“Having worked in government myself on budgets at the provincial level, if that was a big number, it would have been in there front and centre,” said Alexi White, the director of systems change at Maytree, an organization that promotes solutions to poverty.

“My guess would be the numbers are just so small, that they didn’t find that that would be, you know, a compelling argument to support the benefit design that they’re bringing forward.”

The government uses the market basket measure, which employs a “specified basket of goods and services representing a modest basic standard of living” to define the official poverty line by region and population. For a single person living in Ontario, the average is $27,097.

The Parliamentary Budget Officer estimated the annual benefit should have been at least $14,356 per person to address the gap between welfare and the poverty threshold in any area in Canada (provinces and territories have varying levels of disability support). The Star has reached out to all 13 provincial and territorial governments about the benefit and only Manitoba has confirmed it would not claw back its supports.

The lack of answers on how many people this would lift out of poverty is unusual, said Jennifer Robson, the program director at Carleton University’s School of Political Management.

When the government revamped the Canada Child Benefit in 2016, they said the changes would result in 300,000 fewer children in poverty in one year. In contrast, this year’s budget only says the new disability benefit will “increase the financial well-being” of low-income persons with disabilities.

Asked how she was responding to the heavy criticism her government faces from disability groups, Khera said she will continue working with the community. In an email, her office said this government “has allocated unprecedented funds toward supporting persons with disabilities and promoting inclusion since taking office in 2015,” including through its disability inclusion action plan.

Last week, at a stop in Oakville, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attended a roundtable discussion organized by local MPs to hear from nearly a dozen members of the disability community about their experiences navigating their disabilities — and their concerns with the recently announced disability benefit.

Elaine Carter Cray, an advocate who was there with her daughter who has a disability, said she was glad the prime minister showed up and listened to what was a highly emotional meeting. But meetings and consultations can only go so far with a benefit that’s simply not enough, she said.

“I specifically just shared that if (my daughter) didn’t have the support of a family, she would be living on the street, there’s no way she could afford to pay rent,” she told the Star. “And I think that’s basically what everyone’s message was: They need more money, they need more support, they need more accessibility, there needs to be more jobs.

“But I can’t say I expect much to come of it.”