How Doug Ford schooled his rivals in the Milton byelection

Hamid, who tried to run for the federal Liberals in 2015 and has donated $3,508 to the Grits over the past decade, defeated Crombie’s standard-bearer Galen Naidoo Harris by 2,407 votes.

That’s more than the 1,680 votes former PC cabinet minister Parm Gill won by in the Tories’ 2022 landslide re-election.

Indeed, Hamid took 47 per cent of the popular vote compared to Gill’s 43.1 per cent, increasing the margin of victory to 8.8 percentage points from 1.4 two years ago.

While local Tories privately grumbled about Ford anointing a Liberal former councillor and mayoral runner-up as the PC candidate, the premier, who often emphasizes that he doesn’t “believe in political stripes,” was convinced Hamid’s name recognition would help in a close contest.

Voters proved him right, but he struck an uncharacteristically modest tone at the victory party, saying he was “very humbled” by the wins in Milton and in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, where Steve Pinsonneault triumphed.

Ford — who over the past six years has transformed the Tories into a more diverse, centrist party that can attract Liberal and NDP voters — was asked about his opposition to Speaker Ted Arnott’s decision to ban the Palestinian kaffiyeh from the legislature because it breaks the rule against all “overtly political” attire.

The traditional black-and-white scarves are common at pro-Palestinian rallies, including at the ongoing University of Toronto encampment protest, after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks against Israel and subsequent Israeli military retaliation in Gaza.

While Ford, Crombie, NDP Leader Marit Stiles and Green Leader Mike Schreiner all oppose Arnott’s edict, some Tory MPPs have refused to agree to unanimous consent motions to allow the kaffiyeh at Queen’s Park.

“You can see it hasn’t caused too much of a division,” the premier insisted in Milton, home to a growing and influential Muslim population.

“We’re one family, one team — sure, families disagree sometimes, but most importantly we all keep together,” he said.

For Crombie, who won the Liberal leadership five months ago, Milton was a setback.

“There were a lot of factors and we’ll go back and take a look at them,” she said at Naidoo Harris’s postelection party.

Privately, one Liberal strategist, speaking confidentially in order to discuss internal deliberations, admitted their candidate was hindered by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s unpopular federal party.

“But the NDP is cratering, which is a positive,” the insider said gamely, echoing Crombie’s contention the Liberals are the best alternative to Ford, having finished second in both ridings — albeit with 22.6 per cent of the vote in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex to 56.9 per cent for the Tories.

Indeed, Stiles’s Official Opposition New Democrats had a disappointing night, garnering just 8.6 per cent of the vote in Milton and 10.8 per cent in the London-area riding.

Only Schreiner’s Greens, who had won the Kitchener Centre byelection just six months ago with 48 per cent of the vote, taking an NDP seat, fared worse Thursday.

They were fifth — behind the right-wing New Blue Party — with 2.8 per cent in Milton, where opposition to reopening the Campbellville quarry was a major issue, and 1.6 per cent in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex.

If the byelections were a teachable moment for the opposition party leaders, it was Ford who ended up schooling them.

With a provincewide election 25 months away, there are plenty of lessons for them — and not much time left to learn.